Publications
Journal of Health Economics, Volume 80, December 2021, 102538
Abstract: Recent research in the U.S. links trade-induced job displacement to deaths of despair. Should we expect the same mortality response in developing countries? This paper analyzes the effect of a trade-induced negative shock to manufacturing employment on leading causes of mortality in Mexico between 1998 and 2013. I exploit cross-municipality variation in trade exposure based on differences in industry specialization before China's accession to the WTO in 2001 to identify labor-demand shocks that are concentrated in manufacturing. I find trade-induced job loss increased mortality from diabetes, raised obesity rates, reduced physical activity, and lowered access to health insurance. These deaths were offset by declines in mortality from ischemic heart disease and chronic pulmonary disease. These findings highlight that negative employment shocks have heterogeneous impacts on mortality in developing countries, where falling incomes lead to less access to health care and nutritious food, but also reduce alcohol and tobacco use.
[Preprint]
World Bank Economic Review, Volume 37, Issue 2, May 2023
Abstract: This paper examines the effect of trade-induced changes in Mexican labor demand on population growth and migration responses at the local level. It exploits cross-municipality variation in exposure to a change in trade policy between the U.S. and China that eliminated potential tariff increases on Chinese imports, negatively affecting Mexican manufacturing exports to the U.S.. Municipalities more exposed to the policy change, via their industry structure, experienced greater employment loss. In the five years following the change in trade policy, more exposed municipalities experience increased population growth, driven by declines in out-migration. Conversely, six to ten years after the change in trade policy, exposure to increased trade competition is associated with decreased population growth, driven by declines in in-migration and return migration rates, and increased out-migration. The sluggish regional adjustment is consistent with high moving costs and transitions across sectors in the short term.
Working Papers
The Effect of Broadband Internet on Mental Health-Related Disability Insurance Claims (with Ilan Tojerow) [September 2025]
Abstract: We examine the causal impact of high-speed internet on adult mental health using administrative data from Belgium. We exploit predetermined telecommunications infrastructure and broadband technology's distance-sensitive nature for identification. Our difference-in-differences estimates show internet increased mental health-related disability insurance claims by 0.054 percentage points—a 31% increase relative to the control group. These findings are supported by increased antidepressant use at the municipality level. Results point to a work-related mechanism: effects are concentrated among knowledge workers and those in high work-from-home potential jobs. Time-use data show a substitution from leisure to work and less social interaction on weekends.
I was awarded a Marie Skłodowska-Curie Actions Individual Fellowship from the European Commission for this project. [European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programe; grant agreement No 101027302].
Collective Wage Co-ordination and the Costs of Job Displacement (with Ilan Tojerow) [July 2025]
Abstract: This paper investigates whether a higher level of co-ordination in collective wage bargaining affects the wage costs of job displacement. We use quasi-exogenous variation in the timing of job loss due to mass layoffs spanning an institutional reform that introduced national ceilings to wage agreements negotiated at sectoral- and firm-level—the 1996 Belgian Wage Norm. We find that average earnings losses over a ten-year period after displacement are roughly ten percentage points smaller under the more coordinated wage bargaining system. The attenuation stems from faster re-employment and a greater likelihood that displaced workers match to higher-paying firms, indicating that a compressed wage-offer distribution shortens search and limits long-run scarring.
[Previously circulated as IZA Discussion Paper No. 14942, December 2021]
Effects of E-Commerce on Local Labor Markets (with Anahid Bauer) [New draft coming soon]
Abstract: This paper studies the effect of e-commerce on local labor markets. We exploit cross-market variation in e-commerce price advantage stemming from the enactment of the Amazon Tax—state-level legislation that mandates state sales taxes collection to out-of-state online retailers. Introducing out-of-state sales taxes lowered employment and reduced wages in transportation and warehousing, industries complementary to e-commerce. Within the in-state retail sector, the decline in brick-and-mortar employment is somewhat offset by an increase in employment in warehouse clubs and supercenters. Our results are consistent with a general equilibrium model in which consumers substitute e-commerce for big-box purchases, crowding out brick-and-mortar retail.
[IZA Discussion Paper No. 16345, July 2023]
Selected Work in Progress
Changing Incentives for Earnings in Public Housing: a Quasi-Experimental Investigation into the Federal Family Self-Sufficiency Program (with Holly Dykstra)
Summary: This paper investigates earnings incentives in public housing. For most people living in public housing, the cost of rent is tied to one's income, and an increase in income leads to an increase in rent. This creates a disincentive towards earning more. We study a federal program that removes this connection, allowing residents to stay at their baseline level rent even if their income rises. In partnership with the Cambridge Housing Authority, we automatically enroll some residents in public housing into this program and provide them with financial coaching through the Boston-based nonprofit Compass Working Capital.
The Effect of Broadband Expansion on Mental Health (with Ilan Tojerow)
Summary: To study how increased connectivity to work affects individuals’ career trajectory and the risk of mental health-related disability, we will merge data on internet expansion and workers' careers with information on reimbursed care and medicines from the Agence InterMutualiste (AIM). This follow-up project will focus on the effect of internet expansion on mental health related outcomes—burnout or stress diagnosis, prescriptions for antidepressant and anti-anxiety medication, access to treatment— potentially leading to disability insurance claims. This project will have important health policy implications to counteract the rise in work-related mental health illnesses.
I was awarded a F.R.S-FNRS CR (Chargé de Recherche) postdoctoral grant for this project.
Government-Subsidized Household Production Activities and Female Labor Supply (with Agnès Charpin and Ilan Tojerow)
Summary: This project investigates the impact of access to low-cost substitutes for household production on female labor supply. We leverage the Belgian Service Voucher Scheme (SVS), a public policy launched in 2004 to subsidize the purchase of household services. Our empirical approach isolates plausibly exogenous variation in (i) the price women pay to outsource household production generated by the SVS, and (ii) the geographic variation in availability of domestic workers. We combine Belgian administrative data, which allows us to identify SVS workers precisely, with tax records that document the users’ purchases of service vouchers under the SVS. This paper will provide causal evidence linking government-subsidized substitutes for household production services to labor supply decisions made by users of the program. This project aims at improving our understanding of the obstacles that prevent women from providing more labor market work, and the causes of the remaining gender inequalities in the labor market.
This project has received funding from the F.R.S-FNRS PDR (Projet de Recherche); Grant No T.0199.22